Prediction of Wind Farm Power Ramp Rates: A Data-Mining Approach

In this paper, multivariate time series models were built to predict the power ramp rates of a wind farm. The power changes were predicted at 10 min intervals. Multivariate time series models were built with data-mining algorithms. Five different data-mining algorithms were tested using data collected at a wind farm. The support vector machine regression algorithm performed best out of the five algorithms studied in this research. It provided predictions of the power ramp rate for a time horizon of 10–60 min. The boosting tree algorithm selects parameters for enhancement of the prediction accuracy of the power ramp rate. The data used in this research originated at a wind farm of 100 turbines. The test results of multivariate time series models were presented in this paper. Suggestions for future research were provided. DOI: 10.1115/1.3142727